Is Matt Wallner Still a Viable MLB Bat? (2024)

Last season, Twins outfielder Matt Wallner impressed everyone in his third stint in MLB, hitting .636/.714/1.000 with seven hits, one home run, and one double, a .364 Isolated Power (ISO), 0% strikeout rate, and 366 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances from May 23-28. Wallner's breakout was short-lived, though, as the team optioned the red-hot power-hitting corner outfielder to Triple-A St. Paul to activate fellow left-handed hitting outfielder Max Kepler off the 10-day injured list. The Forest Lake native spent two more months at Triple-A before returning to MLB in mid-July. The then-25-year-old would get rewarded with his first extended look with the parent club.

Wallner didn't skip a beat, hitting .250/.351/.563 with eight hits, three home runs, one double, a .313 ISO, and 151 wRC+ over 38 plate appearances. Wallner's strikeout rate did jump to 35.1% in his return to the majors. Still, with the young outfielder producing at a 51% better than league-average clip, the Twins were understandably forgiving of the young outfielder's tendency to swing and miss. Wallner continued to hit well over the next two weeks, posting a 141 wRC+ and hitting three home runs (including a walk-off homer off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald) in 35 plate appearances.

Wallner excelled, and began to look like a potential fixture in the Twins lineup for seasons to come. Then, he endured his first real test in "The Show." After his heroic walk-off home run against Arizona, the burly slugger hit .175/.299/.404 with 10 hits over 67 plate appearances. Despite continuing to manufacture an alarming 35.8% strikeout rate while watching his wRC+ drop to a below-league-average 97, Wallner continued hitting for power, smashing three more long balls over this stretch. Luckily for the Twins and Wallner, his skid quickly resided, and he hit .284/.411/.514 with 21 hits, four home runs, five doubles, a .230 ISO, a slightly more manageable 31.1% strikeout rate, and a well-above-average 157 wRC+.

Wallner appeared to get his groove back just in time for his first postseason appearance. Alas: baseball makes fools of believers. Between the Wild Card Series against the Toronto Blue Jays and the ALDS against the Houston Astros, Wallner netted zero hits, three walks, and struck out eight times over 12 plate appearances. Being effectively non-present in the Twins' first extended playoff run in over 19 years, Wallner likely entered the offseason with a bitter taste in his mouth and a desire to show why he became one of the main contributors to what was arguably the best rookie class in Twins history. Unfortunately, he has yet to alleviate that wistful feeling three weeks into the 2024 season.

In his first 31 plate appearances, Wallner is hitting .083/.258/.250 with two hits, one double, one home run, a 51.6% strikeout rate, and a 60 wRC+. Looking at Wallner's stat line, the one silver lining is the one home run. However, that home run came off a 61 MPH slider from Detroit Tigers utility infielder Zach McKinstry. Wallner's striking out in over half his plate appearances has led those who follow the team to compare him to former Twins strikeout-prone left-handed hitting outfielder Joey Gallo. However,hitting a home run off a position playeris the icing on the cake. Now, I don't mean to be unabashedly rude to Wallner, and the comparisons to Gallo are likely premature and unfair (right?), but the 26-year-old looks uncompetitive at the plate and a shell of the force he was as a rookie last season.

With Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Royce Lewis, and Brooks Lee on the 10-day injured list and fellow left-handed hitting corner outfielder Trevor Larnach still on a rehab assignment for a turf toe diagnosis that sidelined to begin the season, the Twins have a finite number of MLB-caliber position players available to them. Yunior Severino and Emmanuel Rodriguez are the only other players on the 40-man roster the Twins could promote to the parent club. Although promoting Rodríguez to the majors is tempting, he needs to continue developing in the minors for now. Severino cannot play the outfield, and his 36.1% strikeout rate at St. Paul doesn't bode well for the 24-year-old to string together more productive at-bats than Wallner in the majors.

Kepler's stint on the 10-day IL and Wallner's inability to produce at the plate have forced the Twins to rely primarily on Manuel Margot and Austin Martin in the corner outfield. Although the contact-skilled righties have filled in adequately, the Twins lack pop out of two positions expected to be primary sources of power entering the season. With Larnach nearing a return from his rehab assignment, the Twins could have a natural one-for-one replacement for Wallner if he continues to put together uncompetitive at-bats. Needing to demote Wallner to Triple-A less than one month into the season would mark a new level of uncertainty about the value of a player who was almost a cornerstone coming into spring training. However, the Minnesota native's lackluster performance could leave the club's decision-makers no choice.